Social Science Research Network found 186 banks at risk of failure

In the complex world of finance, even the subtlest shifts can send ripples through the global economy. One such shift that has been closely monitored is the rise in interest rates. A report from the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) has delved deep into the implications of this phenomenon on the risk of bank failure. In this blog post, we’ll explore the key findings and insights from this SSRN report, shedding light on the potential consequences and safeguards that banks and policymakers should consider in a rising interest rate environment.

The Impact of Interest Rates on Banks

Interest rates play a pivotal role in the functioning of banks. They influence borrowing costs, lending rates, and the profitability of financial institutions. When interest rates rise, several challenges emerge for banks, which can ultimately affect their stability and solvency. Here are some of the primary ways in which rising interest rates impact banks:

Cost of Funds: Banks raise capital by borrowing from various sources, including other financial institutions and individual depositors. When interest rates rise, the cost of these borrowings increases, squeezing bank profit margins.
Loan Performance: Higher interest rates can make it more difficult for borrowers to meet their debt obligations, leading to an increase in loan defaults. Banks may need to set aside more capital to cover potential losses, further straining their financial health.
Asset Valuation: Rising interest rates can reduce the market value of existing fixed-income assets in a bank’s portfolio, potentially leading to losses. This can impair a bank’s capital position and its ability to lend.
Liquidity Challenges: Banks may face liquidity challenges as their funding costs increase while the value of their assets declines. This can make it difficult for them to meet short-term obligations.

Key Findings from the SSRN Report

The SSRN report on the risk of bank failure in a rising interest rate environment offers valuable insights into this critical issue. Here are some key findings from the report:

Sensitivity Analysis: The report conducted sensitivity analyses on various banking metrics, including net interest margin, loan delinquency rates, and capital adequacy ratios, to assess how they would be impacted by rising interest rates. It found that even a moderate increase in rates could significantly affect these metrics.
Stress Testing: The SSRN report also conducted stress tests on a sample of banks to evaluate their resilience to interest rate shocks. The results showed that some banks, especially those with high exposure to long-term fixed-rate assets, could face substantial difficulties in maintaining capital adequacy in a rising rate scenario.
Policy Implications: The report suggests that central banks and regulatory authorities should closely monitor the interest rate environment and consider implementing macroprudential policies to mitigate the risk of bank failure. These policies could include adjusting capital requirements, conducting stress tests more frequently, and imposing limits on certain types of lending.
Risk Management: Banks are encouraged to enhance their risk management practices, including more robust stress testing and scenario analysis, to prepare for the potential challenges posed by rising interest rates. Diversifying their asset portfolios and using interest rate hedging strategies are also recommended.

In total, the SSRN found that 186 banks in the United States were at risk of failure if another rate hike happens.

So will Fed increase interest rates in September 2023?

After two relatively tame Consumer Price Index inflation reports and some evidence that the employment situation may be softening, the Federal Reserve is not expected to raise rates at its September meeting. However, there is still a chance that the Fed raises rates again in 2023.

How can you protect yourself from another crash?

The best way to hedge against bank failures is to diversify your financial holdings across multiple institutions and asset classes. Spreading your investments across different banks, including those from different countries if possible, helps minimize the concentration risk associated with a single financial institution. Additionally, consider allocating a portion of your investments to safer assets like government bonds or high-quality corporate bonds, as these tend to be more resilient during economic downturns and banking crises. Moreover, staying informed about the financial health of the banks where you hold accounts, monitoring regulatory reports, and maintaining a liquid emergency fund can provide an extra layer of protection. Lastly, consulting with a financial advisor or planner can help tailor a risk mitigation strategy that aligns with your specific financial goals and risk tolerance.